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 "text": "Femke,\n\nThe brief is below. Most of the market figures check out, but **three of your eight questions can't be answered as asked**:\n- **Q5 (Olympics):** padel is not on the LA 2028 programme.\n- **Q6 (Deloitte):** I couldn't find the *Benelux Padel Outlook 2026* report or its \u20ac212m figure, so there is no page number to footnote.\n- **Q7 (brand shares):** I found no public data on racket market shares by brand in the Netherlands.\n\nPlease keep these three claims out of the investor deck.\n\n---\n\n## 1. Netherlands market size\n\n**Best source:** *Padel in cijfers 2025*, published by the Dutch federation (KNLTB) with EY. It is the federation's own count, fixed at 31 December 2025, and it also uses NOC*NSF sports-participation data [1].\n\n| Metric | Figure (end 2025) | Source |\n|---|---|---|\n| People who played at least once in 2025 | 876,000 | [1] p.17 |\n| Monthly players (NOC*NSF definition) | about 424,000 (423,579) | [1] p.17, p.37 |\n| Players registered with the KNLTB | 343,121 (+10% on 2024) | [1] p.17 |\n| Courts | 3,523 | [1] p.37 |\n| Venues | 780 (329 commercial centres and 451 clubs) | [1] p.35, p.37 |\n| Competition players | 91,196 (+21%) | [1] p.23 |\n\n**Growth:**\n- Courts grew 25% and venues 15% compared with 2024 [1, p.37]. The 475 courts of 2020 have now passed 3,500 [1, p.37].\n- The KNLTB says yearly growth in courts and venues is \"slowing slightly but remains in double digits\" [1, p.37].\n- EY says players are increasing faster than venues, which is putting pressure on capacity and holding back growth [2].\n- Commercial centres grew by almost 23%, from 268 to 329 [1, p.41].\n- 60% of players play once or occasionally; 40% play regularly [1, p.17].\n- More than 240,000 people booked through the meet & play platform. About 25% of them also belong to a club, so most players are pay-and-play [1, p.19].\n\n**Less reliable figures you may come across:** Padelgids gives a *calculated* total of 830,962 players and labels it as a calculation [3]. Another site estimates about 1.2 million players for 2026 but gives no method [4]. Neither should go in the deck.\n\n## 2. Flanders / Belgium\n\n**The data here is weak.** Belgium has no national count; each of its two regional federations publishes its own figures [5].\n\n- **Federation:** Tennis en Padel Vlaanderen has more than 520 clubs and more than 200,000 members, but that total combines tennis and padel. It says padel added more than 70,000 new members over four years [6]. **I could not find a current padel-only membership figure.**\n- **Courts:** L'Avenir (23 April 2026) reports that Flanders has passed 2,000 courts and 469 clubs [7], but the paper gives no source for this [5]. A separate blog claims more than 1,100 courts and about 106,000 players in Flanders [8]. The two numbers don't agree, so **I can't confirm a Flemish court count.**\n- **Wallonia and Brussels, for comparison:** courts rose from 206 in 2021 to almost 700, and members from 5,942 to 11,661 [7].\n- **Is growth holding pace?** I can't verify this for Flanders. No official year-on-year figures were found. One trade newsletter calls Belgium a market with \"only moderate growth now\" [9], but that is commentary, not data.\n\n## 3. Global context\n\n- The *Playtomic Global Padel Report 2026*, written with PwC's Strategy&, counts more than 58,300 courts, 20,900+ clubs and 19.4 million players worldwide. Almost 8,000 courts were added in 2025, and it forecasts about 91,000 courts by 2028 [10].\n- It sorts countries into five market types by maturity. The **Netherlands and Belgium** are both in the **\"Sweet Spot\"** group, along with France, Switzerland and South Africa. These markets sit between mature \"Heartlands\" like Spain and fast-rising \"Hotspots\" like the UK and Germany [11]. (This classification comes from a summary of the report; I didn't check it against the full report.)\n- The international federation (FIP) counts differently and arrives at about 77,300 courts [5]. Please say which source you're using in the deck.\n\n## 4. Who plays (Netherlands)\n\n- **Gender:** among KNLTB-registered players, the split has settled at about **35% women and 65% men**. The share of women has fallen since 2020 [1, p.17]. In mid-2025 the KNLTB reported 110,942 women, or 35.6% [12].\n- **Age:** **25\u201334** is the largest group in absolute numbers. The under-18s and the 45+ groups have both grown clearly [1, p.17].\n- **Children:** the number of children aged 12 and under who played at least once more than doubled in 2025 [1, p.43].\n\n## 5. The Olympic angle: the premise is wrong\n\n**Padel is not part of LA 2028.** LA28's official list of Olympic sports does not include it [13]. The sports added for LA28 were cricket, flag football, lacrosse, squash and baseball/softball [14]. Specialist sites confirm that padel will not be at LA 2028 and is aiming for Brisbane 2032 [15]. So there are no Olympic padel dates for 2028.\n\nEvents you can verify instead:\n- Padel is a medal sport at the **2027 European Games in Istanbul** [16]. I haven't confirmed the exact dates.\n- The KNLTB promotes the **2027 European Padel Championships (EK Padel)** [17]. Venue and dates weren't confirmed.\n- Olympic inclusion is still only an aim. The KNLTB itself only mentions a *possible* future step towards Olympic status [1, p.13].\n\n## 6. Deloitte *Benelux Padel Outlook 2026*: not found\n\nI found no Deloitte publication with this title, and no \u20ac212 million figure for the Dutch equipment market. Deloitte's only known padel work is with Playtomic on the *Global Padel Report 2023*, which put the whole **European** padel equipment market at \u20ac500 million in 2022 [18][19]. The 2026 edition of that report was written with PwC Strategy&, not Deloitte [10]. **Please don't footnote the \u20ac212m figure.** Ask your CEO for the actual document. If it's an internal or paid report, we'll need a copy to give it a page reference.\n\n## 7. Racket market shares by brand: not available\n\nI found no public data on 2025 Dutch racket market shares for Bullpadel, Head, Adidas, Babolat, Nox or other brands. Global reports list the brands that compete but give no Dutch market shares [20]. This would need paid retail data (for example a retail sales panel) or commissioned research. **Please don't include shares in the deck until we have them.**\n\n## 8. Implications for the launch\n\n1. **Target flexible players aged 25\u201344 who book courts, not just club members.** Most Dutch players are pay-and-play [1, p.19], 25\u201334 is the largest age group [1, p.17], and 60% play only occasionally [1, p.17]. That points to campaigns in booking apps and commercial centres, and to beginner-friendly products. Commercial centres are also where venues are growing fastest [1, p.41].\n2. **Treat women and youth as a gap to win, without assuming the Olympics will help.** Women are about 35% of players and their share has fallen since 2020 [1, p.17], while youth participation is growing fast [1, p.17, p.43]. Women's and junior ranges could set the brand apart. For a big-event moment, use the 2027 European Games and EK Padel rather than LA 2028 [13][16][17].\n\n---\n\n## Sources\n1. KNLTB/EY, *Padel in cijfers 2025* (page numbers as printed): https://www.knltb.nl/media/xvtejmk4/eyxknltb_padel_in_cijfers-2025.pdf\n2. EY newsroom, March 2026: https://www.ey.com/nl_nl/newsroom/2026/03/padelspelers-in-nederland-groei-zet-door-nieuwe-fase-in-professionalisering\n3. https://padelgids.nl/spelers/aantal/\n4. https://padelbaneninnederland.nl/padel-groei-statistieken/\n5. https://www.customyourpadel.com/blog/padel-in-nederland-in-cijfers\n6. https://productie.tennisenpadelvlaanderen.be/nl/wie-zijn-wij\n7. https://www.lavenir.net/sports/autres-sports/2026/04/23/la-folie-du-padel-ne-retombe-pas-le-nombre-de-terrains-a-plus-que-triple-en-cinq-ans-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-3PQWE27XK5BGTORBZWV542BWYI/\n8. https://www.padelclubs.be/padel-in-vlaanderen-cijfers/\n9. https://racketbusiness.com/p/padel-in-europe-a-three-lane-motorway-of-growth\n10. https://padel-22.prowly.com/459716-2026-playtomic-global-padel-report-reveals-a-sport-moving-beyond-the-court-into-real-estate-wellness-and-global-investment\n11. https://padel1969.com/global-padel-report-2026/\n12. https://www.knltb.nl/nieuws/2025/06/padel-blijft-groeien-van-hype-naar-volwassen-sport/\n13. https://la28.org/en/games-plan/olympics.html\n14. https://manofmany.com/entertainment/sport/los-angeles-olympics-2028-new-sports\n15. https://padel-rules.com/history-and-culture/padel-and-olympics/\n16. https://www.padelfip.com/2026/03/from-krakow-2023-to-istanbul-2027-padel-confirmed-as-medal-sport-in-the-european-games-programme-carraro-we-are-pleased-and-proud-for-everyone-who-loves-our-sport/\n17. https://www.knltb.nl/\n18. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playtomic-and-monitor-deloitte-report-the-padel-industry-will-grow-to-reach-6-billion-euros-in-2026-301861179.html\n19. https://www.sgieurope.com/a-year-in-review-for-padel/106323.article\n20. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6124058/padel-rackets-market-global-forecast"
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